India States Elections 2017: The BJP on Friday dubbed the congress a sinking ship, opportunist and history, the Prime Minister Modi asked the voters not to vote for the opposition party in the upcoming assembly elections in the five states. Then the question arises where will this votes go, will it help the AAP more than any other party.
BJP saturating Congress votes will give rise to AAP party; this is what happened in Delhi, same thing can happen in Punjab and happening elsewhere.
Reasons for the BJP failure
For a quick reminder of this reason is that in the Delhi Legislative election the BJP got almost the same percent/share of votes it used to get before the election, in the previous election. At that point of time the BJP and the AAP build a high consensus in the Public for the anti congress vote. It was the same Modi government that appealed Congress Mukt Bharat, assuming the Congress votes would go to BJP, but is went to the AAP party.
The AAP party led by Arvind Kejriwal got an astonishing 67 out of 70 seats in the February 2015 elections. The going against votes of the Congress directly went to the Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP lost too badly by the Aap Party.
The second reason is the Loss of Bihar Election, In Bihar too the BJP lost and again by the Mahagathbandhan. Which became mostly a two party fight, one between the Mahagathbandhan and BJP, other small parties were not relevant. What happened was the Votes which moved away from Congress always remained in the same group, though indirectly it helped the opposition.
The Same thing is happening in the UP election, ever since the Congress thought to ride with the Cycle, the percent of the BJP winning in UP election seems to be dim. It will majorly depend upon the BSP how much they cut the vote share and indirectly help the BJP. Even that looks less that BSP is going to make any impact in the state. The chances are BJP going to perform badly in UP election as well.
In Punjab election again the Shiromani Akali Dal – Bharatiya Janata Party alliance led by Parkash Singh Badal won the elections. However this time the anti incumbency and the BJP cutting the Congress Votes might help the AAP Party led Arvind Kejriwal
Best Chances of BJP winning the Election: The chances of BJP winning any election hence forward is mostly depended in the divided opposition and multi fight election
Till date most of the voters belonged from the minority community especially the Muslim, Christians and other people in the society were the main voters of the congress party. If the votes moved away from Congress, it got dispersed into other parties and since other parties were not fighting together it helped the BJP party. But now the things are quickly changing the Opposition understands this, they know to fight the BJP government they have to fight together, indirectly getting the Congress votes merged in other parties and helping them all together.
It was the same reason why the Mahagathbandhan was formed and the same reason why the Akhilesh government in UP said that they will get more than 300 seat in UP if the SP joins hand with the Congress Party and they are fighting joint election.
It has been well fed into the minds of the people that BJP is a communal party and a party for the rich, well off and highly educated by the Congress party itself. It is just like hotels which are good and well maintained from outside, even if the food is cheap inside the hotel, people who are earning less are unlikely to go and take the food. Same thing is happening with the BJP party. Even though people realize that the BJP is doing some good work unlike the way it happened earlier, they are reluctant to give their valuable votes to the BJP party, especially the Muslim, Christians and other minority community.
How the BJP must proceed
It is no doubt for the other parties are hitting hard for the Muslim Votes and other minority communities for their permanent vote bank. In West Bengal Muslim which have around 22 percent of vote and highly affected the Trinamool Congress, TMC growth.
In UP again the Samajwadi Party knows quite well that this is the Congress Party support can further increase its votes, as it knows the minority community votes is again towards the Congress.
So what can the BJP do to revive its vote’s percent?
Point1: BJP has to seek the votes of the Minority community in order to remain a floating ship otherwise as now BJP is calling the Congress a sinking ship, a day will come when other parties may call the BJP a sinking ship
Point 2: In a three way fight between the congress, BJP and other party like AAP. The BJP has need to not to saturate the entire congress vote bank. If people are not voting for the congress party the votes share might go to the third party like the AAP party in Punjab this time of election 2017. As previously it went to AAP in New Delhi in 2015 elections.
Point 3: BJP has to make more alliances with the regional parties, especially who are well connected to the minority vote bank and nourish these regional parties to help the BJP grow,
Point 4: Now days the election has become more of manifestos and free schemes and goodies. The more you can sell your free goodies to the public your chances becomes higher. As can be seen in the current times the BJP is more often giving long term dates of the fulfillment of the promises and more realistic the freebee are very less in comparison to other parties. Like free laptop, less electric charges, jewellery and many other things are missing from the BJP party.
Point 5: Another way is the British way, divide and rule the country. The more you keep the opposition divided the greater chances for the BJP to win any election under the Narendra Modi leadership.
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