Why will it be tough for Amit Shah to conquer west Bengal, Kerala?
BJP, Amit Shah: The BJP popularity is growing very rapidly all over India and it has been expanding like the wild fire in the jungle. The BJP is currently in power in 16 states out of total 29 states. In the recent held polls BJP won in 4 out of 5 states election contested. However the biggest ever challenge for the BJP would be to win Kerala and most importantly West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee is the current undisputed queen.
Winning states like Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha might be easy for Amit shah. Amit Shah has shown a great leadership and Managerial attitude in winning the states like UP. He might be able to retain power in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. The BJP has been doing well in these states.
However the prestige and question lies in mainly two states, the state of West Bengal and Secondarily Kerala. These are the two states where BJP would like to gain power in the upcoming elections. West Bengal is important for the 2019 assembly election and 2021 Lok Sabha election.
In Kerala, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got just 4.75 per cent of votes in the 2006 Assembly elections, further in 2011 election it got 6.03 per cent and 10.6 per cent in the 2016 Assemble elections. The BJP opened its account for the first time by winning one seat in the 2016 Assembly elections in Kerala and came second on seven of the total 140 Assembly seats.
Similarly in West Bengal, The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was able to bag just 3 seats in the 2016 Assembly Elections and it got around just 10 percent votes in the 2016 Election.
If BJP is able to manage in vote percent in these two states to around 20 percent then there are likely chances of it to convert this percent into seats and increase the chance of BJP coming into power in these states.
According to 2011 Census of India, West Bengal has over 24.6 million Muslims, who form 27% of the state's population. Most of the Muslim votes go towards the ruling TMC because of the popular schemes and welfare schemes helping this community.
In the Last Assembly Election in 2016, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won the assembly election with a good number of votes, however the vote percent of both Congress and Left only decrease and the BJP was in rise. Hopes of BJP coming to power in West Bengal is tough, but not impossible under the leadership of Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi.