Who can win the UP election 2017, SP, BJP, BSP or Congress?
UP Election 2017: The present election in UP is going to be the toughest for the BJP, tough initially it was thinking to fight the election based on development and entirely based on demonetisation. Which the BJP thought it has done a good job by fighting against corruption and black money. The shift in UP just like Bihar has again moved over to the caste based fight and the Congress and Samajwadi Party have gained more control in the coming election.
It was a short lived happiness when the Samajwadi party and the Congress were seen fighting over the seat issue. The announcement of Samajwadi Party and the Congress alliance has come over discussions by the two sides, they agreed to 298-105 formula.
It seems like the Coming together of the Congress and the SP will also called as a mini gathbandhan, is giving more shivering to the BJP and the organization and it is remanding it to all that happened in the Bihar Elections just a year ago..
BJP will be up against two major obstacles. The first is a rejuvenated Akhilesh Yadav who has just become the president of the SP and has now control over the party and the election symbol. Fresh from his victory over his father, who wanted Akhilesh to dump his pro-development agenda in favour of the SP's usual politics based on caste and muscle power.
Indeed Congress can be also seen as the Major Vote cutters which is more prone to drive the Muslim voter towards it normal vote bank. The SP and Congress alliance will attract the large Muslim around 18% of the Muslim towards the combined force of the SP and the Congress.
Lastly the BSP which was supposed to get the maximum votes in case of any split between the Congress and the SP, as it has assumed the Muslim votes will go towards the BSP, however now it has to be more dependent on its Dalit Vote bank, which is around 21 % percent of the population.
BJP biggest disadvantage is the lack of any party face as the CM face and this perception is the biggest problem. There were some talks for Rajnath Singh; however he is unwilling to move back to the state politics.
The failure of the to generate more employment to the desired extent because of automation has also lowered the BJP chances.
Demonetisation has confused the common public how it has really helped the common public in the case of fight against black money.
In most of the local till now people have given thumbs up to the BJP However the real test will be in the assembly polls, in UP, where Modi will be pitted against the young of Congress and SP leader who has understood the value of economic growth and is not crippled by the BJP's communal tag or his own party's caste-based approach to politics.
Over all the UP election is now going in the favour of the Combined Mini-gathbandhan of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party.